Micron's IV Crush Setup: The ~9% Premium Trap

The setup on MU's Wednesday print:

• Implied move: ~9% (the straddle price)
• Historical realized move: ~6-7% average over recent prints
• The gap: options buyers are paying for a bigger move than MU usually delivers

The sell-premium logic: if you sell the straddle at 9% implied and MU moves 6%, you collect the crush — IV collapses post-print regardless of direction.

The honest counter: this isn't a normal MU print. 280% YTD, AI-memory-cycle margin test, ~9% implied might not be rich enough if the surprise is real. The crush is mechanical; the tail is genuine.

Rehearse both the sell and the tail scenario on Stock Picks.