The IV Crush Myths That Cost Sellers Money

Myth 1: "The crush always wins." No — it wins when implied >> realized. On genuinely surprising prints, the directional move overwhelms the vol collapse and sellers get run over.

Myth 2: "Sell any elevated IV." Event-driven IV elevation ≠ regime IV elevation. A name with IV rank 90 because earnings are Thursday is different from IV rank 90 on a Tuesday. Only the former is the crush play.

Myth 3: "The straddle price IS the expected move." It's the market's pricing of the expected move — with a margin for the seller's profit and the buyer's hope. The real expected move is usually less.

MU Wednesday tests all three myths simultaneously — implied 9%, historical ~6.5%, genuine event risk. Rehearse it on Stock Picks.